Not a bad showing before getting knocked offline on the 1st, going to see if I can make time to track some more at Turf Paradise this afternoon, check back.
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Rare opportunity and we have Gulfstream with good weather-
Race 1 the early Q is the 9, by +20min. Don't forget to update your browser to follow along.... with a minute to post the heavy favorite #7 has already qualified.. With 10mtp looking at the 1 and the 3 having qualified in race 2. At 5mtp the 6 is an additional qualifier, so looking at the quinellas and trifectas... Nice quinella, multiple wheels on the trifecta would have yielded similar returns but lower profits. At any rate we are looking at 2/2 on qualifiers... 3rd race offers ni qualifiers at 7mtp, and overlays are the 1 and 4... The 6 qualifies in the fifth minute... The 3 was also a weak overlay, and proved to be second best as the qualifiers went three for three... The early qualifier is the 4 in race 4 thus far... The very late qualifier #8 hits the wire ahead of the earlier Q #4... Two early Q's in the 5th- 4 and 5... The 9 Q'd late but the short overlay #3 prevailed... the 5 placing... The early Q's in the 6th are the 4 and 7.. Went with the tri wheel in the 6th as no other Q'd at 5mtp, may or may not bite me in the a.. Overlays ruled as the 11 and 5 make up the top two in the 6th.. The crowd faired better yesterday than anticipated, here's how the Tote Method faired overall:
($2 base) Win- 36% strike $18.20 payout for (.24) loss Place- 67% strike $34.00 payout for .42 profit Show- 83% strike $32.20 payout for .34 profit w/p/s flat bet $84.40 payout for .17 profit Exacta- $2 box base: 33% strike $32.60 payout for 1.72 profit Combined wager flat bet wagers: $117 payout for .39 profit Looking at a step up wagering plan i.e. $2 win, $4 place and $6 or $8 to show, would have yielded the same profit percentage but larger payout, more than adequate to cover win wager loses, and exotic loses as well. Until next time! So, what to do on a weekend when the crowd is historically inaccurate? Well, are they really? Today I will run the Tote Method through its paces at Santa Anita for the Breeder's Cup card. But I will be focusing on overlays and horses who rise in return after qualifying. (If you will be following along please reload the page every so often to refresh the screen.) R1- At 10mtp it looks like the 2 and 3 are overlays to look at, my early pick is the 4, so if things stay as they are it will be those three as key. Overlays ran out, but my early pick won so alive in the multi race wagers. R2- Short field so I'll pass this one. FYI my early pick is the 3. R3- At the opening the 3 is the best overlay. My early pick is the 2. With two key qualifiers in the 5 and the 11, if things stand I will look to key the 2 and 3 with them. The 13 wasn't on my radar, did get a qualifier to place, didn't play it that way however. R4- Early qualifier is the 4 with two overlays in the 1 and 9. My early pick was the 3. See what happens if all stays as is... Crowd was right in the late stages of this one as they bet the 1 into qualifying and it pans out for them. R5- The early qualifier is the 4 with the overlays being 1,2,9 and 10- the 9 looks as though it may stay up there, my early pick was the 10. 12 goes wire to wire in a nice win. R6- The heavy fav qualifies early with 2,3,4 and 7 all staying in as overlays. I like the 3,6 and 8 as long shot itm plays. Too much to do with the possibility of having a winning loss so going to pass. R7- The early qualifier and my early pick is the 2. The 12 is my long shot for this race, may just stick with that as not pulling the trigger in the last as the 5 could only get up for second, money was there my thought process wasn't. R8- The early qualifier is the 6 here, with the 1,4 getting layover as of this minute. My early pick is the 2. If things stay as is I will be looking to key the 1 and 2 with the others. No surprises with that outcome as the favs topped the board. R9- The 12 is my early pick and the 6 and 11 have both qualified with the 9 the layover. Looking for the price here so if things stay put will key my early pick with those and the 13. Qualifiers take the top two again. R10- The 4 is an early qualifier and also my early pick. Going to try a Hi-5 putting her on top. I like the 8 at a price in the next so run her with it as well. The price was there as the overlay beat the qualifier for top prize. R11- I picked the 8 early. The 9 is a qualifier and the 10 is a short priced overlay. The 5 has a great price right now, we'll see if it holds. Qualifier hits top spot, but I held the wrong longshot while the 5 got up for third. R12- Hear in the finale my early pick is the 8, but with an hour to go I'll wait until later to decide what to do with him. No early qualifiers yet. The wagering has been even with the 8 flirting with qualifying but not quite getting there yet. We'll see if he can get it done. Tough run and the 10 prevailed. Have a great weekend! I can hardly believe that the Derby is just around the corner!
This past year has flown by in a blink, for me anyway, and here we are again looking at the Triple Crown kick off. Today however, is the Aintree Grand National. Before my selection, a short remembrance. It was back when I first started playing the game of golf. Maybe my third or fourth time on an actual course. I couldn't hit distance or a straight drive with a wood off the tee so I would use my three iron for almost every tee shot. This was at my Father's urging, and I obliged being that he was my mentor and coach. We came up on a par three of just over 150 yards and I lined up my three iron and teed up my ball. Everything else from that moment on was a lesson in what not to do. I reeled back and let it rip, standing slightly as I brought down the club. I skulled the ball in the process creating a smoking "worm burner", or if you'd prefer, the worlds longest putt. As luck would have it the ball went dead straight, losing steam as it crested the fringe of the green, trickled towards the cup and dropped in! The only Ace that I have ever hit occurred when I did everything wrong! Anyway, my Father told me not to tell anyone when we arrived back at the clubhouse because I would be obligated to buy everyone a round of drinks. (At that time I could barely afford the greens fees.) Thinking back I'm not sure if my Dad was simply just embarrassed as to the process by which I came by the Ace, an event he now says he doesn't recall. But there are few events in one's life that are as memorable as that, and the time I wrapped that three iron around a tree laying one up to the green, that one almost went in, but left me a short par putt, but that's a story for another time. So, in the spirit of that sole Ace, my selection for the Grand National is Saint Are- If he can keep his feet he has as good a chance as any. Thinking back I wish I had saved that ball, but I lost it on one of the next holes in a water hazard. I had hoped to be able to run a full card today but time constraints won't allow. Instead I am going to focus on three tracks, the first three or four races, in essence creating my own race card.
I am also going to forgo the multiple updates and going with a single update for each race at approx 5mtp. What I'm looking for today are win wagers that will profit long term so qualifiers will need to pay in the 9-5 range or I won't be backing. Finger Lakes race 1 - the 4 and 6 both Q, the six at 2-1 currently. Aqueduct race 1- the 3 and the 5 both Q, the five at 5-2 currently. Q's won both races, however there were no wagers put through as all fell below the designated threshold. At GPW there are two Q's in the first, the 4 and the 5, both over 2-1, but dutching them drops the odds too low. FL R2- the 5 Q's and at 5-2 will be a play unless bet down. Aqu R2- there are three Q's- the 1,6,8 but the odds on the 6 destroy the dutch wager, however the exacta looks good, may take a chance. The heavy favorite in FL R2 also Q'd which destroyed any dutch so everything was scrapped at 1mtp, although it did win... Again the late money forces a Q to the top as the 7 not only Q's but wins. The Q's are doing really well- 4/5 races, but the prices are lacking. The 3rd at FL has a heavy fav that already Q'd so I'm going to pass, the same goes for the 2nd at GPW, the 4 is currently 2/5. The 3rd at the Big A has the 6 horse at 2-1, will wait and see... Short prices are the mantra today, last chance for something to happen is GPW R3, with two Q's, the 4 and 6, both currently at decent prices but only time will tell... At 5-2 for each it makes for a lower payout than I'd like... Next time. Well here I am on a rainy Thursday (where I live anyway), and looking at the card for the Big A, Aqueduct. The first race has three scratches in a short field creating a situation where all remaining horses qualify. going to follow to see if some value appears in the daily double, possibly a pick. Decided to go with the 4/7 over the 3/6 in a DD, anyone's race. The second race opens with a couple of horses flirting with a Q, but none as of yet. Will update at 10mtp. The only Q for the 2nd is the 4, which I didn't use in the DD. Looking at the exacta with the 1 as a possibility. Ultimately went to the 1 and 6 with the 4, rooting for a 6/4 finish. The 1 did Q after betting closed but it didn't matter as the 5, a bomb and TVG pick by Matt Coruthers, got there first. No early Q's in the third- be back in ten... The 6 Q's in race 3, still looking... Just not feeling anything here, a race to watch. The 4th race Q's are the 4 and the 7, looks good for some profit, and may go with an exacta 47/475, the trifecta may be in play as well. Big drop on the 3 at the 3mtp mark, should consider. No early Q's in the 5th. Another bomb drops in for the 4th, some really good prices. Should no horses Q I am looking at possibly the 3rd betting choice. No horses Q'd in the 5th and the 3rd choice ran 2nd to the fav. In the 6th the Q's are the 1 and 2 from the start, I also like the 5 so may go with an exacta box with my wins on this one. The 10 Q'd after close, doing me no good, and it ran a decent race coming in a fading second to the fav. No early Q's in the 7th. Back at 10mtp. Any Q's will probably come late in this one, I liked the 5 this morning, still do, may use in a box with the fav... The 8 did Q after close, again no good for a wager, which is fine because he came in second. Two more races to get in the black for the day, and both with decent size fields. At 10mtp the 2 is flirting with qualifying, as is the 8, but so far no major plays have been made. Days like this see races with late Q's because the money is played so slowly and shared mutuals are put in after closing. You can take a gamble and try to predict if the horse that's close is going to Q late by watching the trends. The gamble would have paid off if you decided to follow the favorite who Q'd after close and went on to win. I didn't go that route this time saving my pennies for the last. The ending theme- no early Q's in the finale. At 10mtp the 11 Q'd, we'll see if anyone joins him, I may join him with the 4/7 in an exacta, but a definite win wager forthcoming. All the money went to the 2 at the close pushing him across the wire and he wins in a two horse stretch run with the 7. Ending totals for w/p/s are- 17.40 / 13.40 / 10.50 Playing total is $22 leaving a (4.60) / (8.60) / (11.50) There was never any value in the p / s wagers today with the smaller fields and late money. Tomorrow's another day, I hope to be live again next week, but one never knows. Luck to all! The tally for the first five races yesterday at Del Mar (qualifiers only):
9 total qualifiers 33% win, 67% place and show 40% win profit 30% place profit 3% show profit Three races had multiple qualifiers, basing the exotics on a $2 box wager: Exacta- 33% for a 59% profit (1 out of 3 races boxed- 1 out of 10 wagers total) Trifecta- 0% for a $12 loss. (1 race boxed- 6 wagers) Total for a win, place, show and exotic monetarily: All- $86- wagered, $99- returned for 15% profit Win, place, exacta only- $56 wagered, $80.40 returned for 44% profit. I am currently working on an additional methodology that will work in conjunction with the Tote Method further narrowing some play. I hope to be able to release it by Derby time 2018. In the mean time be sure to check back for more live runs with the tote method. I realize that they are sporadic and somewhat spontaneous, but then again, so is life. Though there may be one this coming Thursday.... I have the opportunity to share results in real time for the first few races at Del Mar this afternoon. If you would like to follow along simply refresh the page every so often.
My early selections for the first five races are (in order of race): 2,4/9,5/2,3/4,6,8/3,5. The favored horse being listed first. My advance wagers will include an across the board wager on the 7 in race 7 and the 4 in race 9. Now, the early early qualifier ( Q from now on) for the first race is the 2, Good bye Greg. I am hoping to see Q's that go back up in price today, as payouts during the Breeder's Cup tend to be higher. So with sixty minutes to post, the 2 is the sole Q thus far. With 30 tmp Mr. Hinx has also Q'd, so it is now the 2 and 6. Because this is a short field of only six runners all of the horses would Q as overlays so the value may be in exotic multi race wagers such as the daily double. Will have to see as post time draws nearer. At 15mtp it is still the 2/6 as Q's. I can get 3-1 on a daily double with the 9 in the second (2,6 / 5,9), while getting 3-2 on a dutch play. 5mtp, no changes, time to head to the window. The one thing about value is that the horse needs to win. Mr. Hinx caught 2nd and Good Bye Greg ran out, so on to race 2, where the early Q is the 11, Ritzy A.P. 5mtp and no change in Q's, using some trending I went with the 6,9 over the 11 in a trifecta. Ritzy A.P. got up for the win, and the trend didn't pan out for that run, but shows most probable win for a favorite here, we'll see. The early Q's for the 3rd race are the 2,3 and 10. At 5mtp, no changes, the exacta's with the 2 are money back wagers, lets see what happens. The 10 on top gives you a nice little profit. The early Q for race 4 is the 8, Spiced Perfection. The 6 was a late Q, so it was the 6 and 8 at 3mtp. The 8 caught second, the early Q for the 5th race is the 3. It's time for me to roll out, but follow up on the 1 here as fourth wagering position is trending. I'll update with final tally either later tonight or tomorrow. Luck to all! It's hard to believe that a year has come and gone. But here we are. Today's running of the Kentucky Derby offers quite a few opportunities for value. There is no overly hyped favorite, and the weather has been poor. Of course the weather may not be too much a factor by race time, with forty-five minutes to post of the first race at Churchill Downs, Twinspires has yet to list track conditions and scratches. Early qualifiers of the first are Maximus Beauty and Wholehearted. My early leanings for the Derby are three- Girvin, Gunnevera and McCraken. On a side note- in the last at Gulfstream, Tom Liz looks solid and Annie's Big Boy looks as though he may upset. Churchill conditions- turf good, dirt sloppy as of 9:54 est. Notable scratch in the 7th at Churchill- the scratch of Miss Temple City opens the door for upset run by Prize Exhibit with Linda up close. 30 min. to post, no changes in qualifiers of the first. (you will need to refresh to follow throughout the day) Race 1 is being bet pretty even across, and with no changes in Q's at the 4 minute mark I will go with those two in the double with Underpressure. A dutch on those two as well will yield a decent return if one hits the front at the wire too. Realized return on the dutch wager is 2-1 as Maximus Beauty hits the wire first. Early Q's in the second race are Donwell and Awesome Saturday. There are some viable overlays in the race as well. Will wait and see how the wagering plays out. No change thus far in Q's. Getting about 5-1 on the exacta of Q's over my selection Underpressure so I will go that route being that the odds don't warrant a dutch. I will also run a double with Flashy Jewel in the third. Nice price on No Mo Dough as he knocks my exotic off the board. The early Q in the third is my selection of Flashy Jewel. Again there are viable overlays, maybe I won't shy away from them this time... Interesting that the over/under prices in the exacta with Flashy Jewel are within $3 for most horses save the two long shots. I will go with a win on Flashy Jewel and an exacta key box with Carve and Donegal Moon, and a double with Encrypt. That's how it goes sometimes- last flash and Rocket Time Q's, without any real trend in the wagering it was hard to predict the late action. Anyway he put away the rest to win. Two early Q's in the fourth, Caviar Czar and Perfect Partner. Odds too low to consider dutch at this time. Will wait to see if the exotics with my selection, Encrypt, offer some value. Last flash before closing in the fourth gave Souper Fly Over a Q. My early selection ran third as two of the three Q's went first and second... I went chalky in the fifth and sixth with Forge and Carina Mia. The early Q's in the 5th are Forge and Cherry Wine. At this point I will run them in the multi-race wagers with my early selections, and work on narrowing my derby key horse... Nothing left for Forge when he got the opening. No early Q's in the 6th. Is there where everything starts to shift? We'll see... No Q's with 4 min to post so going to pass on this one and see what my long shot looks like in the 7th. Roca Rojo is a heavy bet favorite and Q in the early wagering of the 7th. My selection Prize Exhibit is 16-1 and Linda is, as I type now a Q as well. If things stay as they are I will probably key my pick over and under with the Q's. That's why they're long shots.... No early Q's in the 8th, but no surprise as there is 45 minutes to post.. What is going to happen now that the track is drying out? We'll see.. No Dozing Q's at 35 minutes to post. At the halfway mark Q's have paid on win 4/13, place 6/13 and show 7/13. Per $2 wager that equates to $33 win 27.40 place and 21.80 show- profit on win wagers $7, on place 1.40 and a loss on show of (4.20). Good Samaritan is the early Q in the 9th. Oscar Performance Q'd late in the wagering. No Q's yet in the 10th- Beach Patrol is the early Q in the 11th. At this point I have decided that McCraken will be my key, but have to back up with Practical Joke who shows consistency that few in the race have had. Unfortunately he drew the 19 post, a big minus. The early Q in the Derby is Irish War Cry. However there is still over an hour to go to post... Stay tuned... Wind up with three Q's in the 13th- the entry, 2 and 5- using shorthand here. Going to sit the last two out, but will track progress none the less... So to wrap it all up- the last two races had a total of 5 Q's and the final results are as follows: 23 Qualifiers 6 wins 10 places 11 shows A $2 wager across the board on every qualifier would yield $150.80 on wagers totaling $138 for 9% profit. Breaking that down further- wagering on individual places: Win $50.80 / $46 10% profit Place $54.60 / $46 19% profit show $45.40 / $46 (1%) loss Wagering win / place yields a 15% profit A good day all around, despite the weather. |
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November 2019
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Short Term Equine Investing |
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