To round up value vs. risk I am going to share a simple statement:


If your strike percentage is low, you need to have a high rate of return.
If your strike percentage is high, you can withstand a lower rate of return.


Too many people find themselves at a constant negative with regards to their bankroll because they don't address the aforementioned statement.

Keep it simple and keep your records when it comes to your bread and butter wagers.  If you don't have any, or are unsure what they are, your records of your wagers will help you locate them.

An example-  A strike rate of 20% indicates that for every 100 wagers, you should hit 20.  In order to come out with a profit you will need to get at least 5-1 odds on those wagers.  

5-1 equates to a $12.00 return, so wagering across 100 opportunities costs $200 with a return of $240 (20 x 12= 240). A 20% ( 40/200 = 1/5 or 20%) profit.  Providing you didn't spend $50 on lunch ;)

Turning that around some, if you are able to have a strike rate of 50%, maybe with a show wagering strategy (placepot) than the return you will need to seek is a bit lower in order to make a profit.

Hitting 50 of every 100 wagers is 50%.  Odds of 6-5 will return $4.80.
100 wagering opportunities would then yield the same profit as the previous example.  $200 wagered, a return of $240, profit of $40, or 20%.

Of course the payouts for show (placepot) wagers can often drop to as low as $2.10.  This still gives a return of 5%, certainly not sexy, but none the less a profit, providing your strike rate is 100%.  Ouch.

It all comes down to finding the balance between your strike rate and expected returns, the value of the return vs. the risk of the wager.

A 5% return at a lower strike rate is achievable, and shouldn't be discounted, though a grind when looking to build your bankroll.

In order to weather the losing streaks when dealing with expected returns you will need to know what size bank you should have and what the length of the streaks you should expect.  Below I put links to two articles that will help.  The first will aide in the establishment of your bread and butter methodology and the second goes to the heart of losing streaks.

There is a great article at The Raceadvisor about Bayes Theorem and an article at The Skybluekangaroo about losing streaks that ties in perfectly with what I am discussing here.  Both sites are well worth following.

I hope to be spending some time on the Longchamp card tomorrow, using the tote method live.  Be sure to check back and follow along.

That also leads to another article at geegeez covering the Arc.  Worth a read. Another site worth following.  

Best of racing luck!





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