Todays running of the Florida Derby brings two undefeated contenders together- Nyquist (6/6) and Mohaymen (5/5).

Both are early favorites for the Kentucky Derby but only one, barring some weird photo finish, will trot away as the only undefeated horse left after this race..... Or will it?

Is there a horse that may upset the apple cart?  Could one of the others entered in todays Derby steal the cookie from Nyquist's or Mohaymen's cookie-jar?

I have to admit that I am partial to Mohaymen, mostly due to the 'been there done that' reasoning.  Nyquist might have the class edge, but that may not be enough to make up for the added half furlong in this race, though having never run the distance it's hard to know for sure.  I would be more optimistic if Nyquist had drawn away in either of his winning routes, as he had in his sprint races.  That being said I have to give the edge to Mohaymen.

That being said, there are a couple of interesting possibilities for an upset.

Fellowship has never raced the distance either and has come in third to Mohaymen in his last two races.  The improving colt is 25% at Gulfstream Park and put in a nice work on 3/19.  

Chovanes is coming of his maiden victory in a $50,000 maiden claimer.
Yes, it was off a drop in class.  Yes, he did shorten from 1 1/8 miles to 1 mile.
And yes, he did show a 150% improvement.  He may bounce off the effort, but he has had two really good works since- one on 3/19 and one on 3/27- both at GPW.  (formerly Calder).

Still iffy? Then look at his trainer, J. Navarro, who is 30% at the meet.  The jockey J. Zayas's first time on Chovanes was for the win and who, when coupled with Navarro, hit for 24% for this meet and 33% year to date.  Hard not to include.  For me, anyway.

Then there's Takeittotheedge.  This will be his second time out after a driving win in a $50,000 maiden special weight at 7 furlongs at Gulfstream.  He has had steady works since of four and five furlongs.  

The stretch out is an unknown as well as adapting to the class level but the combination of Gaffalione and Romans is intriguing.  

Gaffalione was aboard for Takeittotheedge's debut win and the jockey's association with trainer Dale Romans has produced 13% wins thus far.  Not great at first glance, but looking at the positive ROI puts a positive spin on this colts chances.

What it comes down to?  I will be looking to key Mohaymen in different exotics with Nyquist, Fellowship, Chovanes and Takeittotheedge.  But I will be using the latter on top in some of them.

A debate can be had for just about any horse in any race at any track.  This race is no different, and that is what makes this game so great, and at times, so frustrating.

Great days to all!

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