It's hard to believe that a year has come and gone. But here we are.
Today's running of the Kentucky Derby offers quite a few opportunities for value.
There is no overly hyped favorite, and the weather has been poor. Of course the weather may not be too much a factor by race time, with forty-five minutes to post of the first race at Churchill Downs, Twinspires has yet to list track conditions and scratches.
Early qualifiers of the first are Maximus Beauty and Wholehearted.
My early leanings for the Derby are three- Girvin, Gunnevera and McCraken.
On a side note- in the last at Gulfstream, Tom Liz looks solid and Annie's Big Boy looks as though he may upset.
Churchill conditions- turf good, dirt sloppy as of 9:54 est.
Notable scratch in the 7th at Churchill- the scratch of Miss Temple City opens the door for upset run by Prize Exhibit with Linda up close.
30 min. to post, no changes in qualifiers of the first.
(you will need to refresh to follow throughout the day)
Race 1 is being bet pretty even across, and with no changes in Q's at the 4 minute mark I will go with those two in the double with Underpressure.
A dutch on those two as well will yield a decent return if one hits the front at the wire too.
Realized return on the dutch wager is 2-1 as Maximus Beauty hits the wire first.
Early Q's in the second race are Donwell and Awesome Saturday. There are some viable overlays in the race as well. Will wait and see how the wagering plays out.
No change thus far in Q's. Getting about 5-1 on the exacta of Q's over my selection Underpressure so I will go that route being that the odds don't warrant a dutch. I will also run a double with Flashy Jewel in the third.
Nice price on No Mo Dough as he knocks my exotic off the board.
The early Q in the third is my selection of Flashy Jewel. Again there are viable overlays, maybe I won't shy away from them this time...
Interesting that the over/under prices in the exacta with Flashy Jewel are within $3 for most horses save the two long shots.
I will go with a win on Flashy Jewel and an exacta key box with Carve and Donegal Moon, and a double with Encrypt.
That's how it goes sometimes- last flash and Rocket Time Q's, without any real trend in the wagering it was hard to predict the late action. Anyway he put away the rest to win.
Two early Q's in the fourth, Caviar Czar and Perfect Partner. Odds too low to consider dutch at this time. Will wait to see if the exotics with my selection, Encrypt, offer some value.
Last flash before closing in the fourth gave Souper Fly Over a Q.
My early selection ran third as two of the three Q's went first and second...
I went chalky in the fifth and sixth with Forge and Carina Mia.
The early Q's in the 5th are Forge and Cherry Wine. At this point I will run them in the multi-race wagers with my early selections, and work on narrowing my derby key horse...
Nothing left for Forge when he got the opening. No early Q's in the 6th. Is there where everything starts to shift? We'll see...
No Q's with 4 min to post so going to pass on this one and see what my long shot looks like in the 7th.
Roca Rojo is a heavy bet favorite and Q in the early wagering of the 7th. My selection Prize Exhibit is 16-1 and Linda is, as I type now a Q as well. If things stay as they are I will probably key my pick over and under with the Q's.
That's why they're long shots.... No early Q's in the 8th, but no surprise as there is 45 minutes to post..
What is going to happen now that the track is drying out? We'll see..
No Dozing Q's at 35 minutes to post.
At the halfway mark Q's have paid on win 4/13, place 6/13 and show 7/13.
Per $2 wager that equates to $33 win 27.40 place and 21.80 show-
profit on win wagers $7, on place 1.40 and a loss on show of (4.20).
Good Samaritan is the early Q in the 9th. Oscar Performance Q'd late in the wagering.
No Q's yet in the 10th-
Beach Patrol is the early Q in the 11th.
At this point I have decided that McCraken will be my key, but have to back up with Practical Joke who shows consistency that few in the race have had. Unfortunately he drew the 19 post, a big minus.
The early Q in the Derby is Irish War Cry. However there is still over an hour to go to post... Stay tuned...
Wind up with three Q's in the 13th- the entry, 2 and 5- using shorthand here.
Going to sit the last two out, but will track progress none the less...
So to wrap it all up- the last two races had a total of 5 Q's and the final results are as follows:
23 Qualifiers 6 wins 10 places 11 shows
A $2 wager across the board on every qualifier would yield $150.80 on wagers totaling $138 for 9% profit.
Breaking that down further- wagering on individual places:
Win $50.80 / $46 10% profit
Place $54.60 / $46 19% profit
show $45.40 / $46 (1%) loss
Wagering win / place yields a 15% profit
A good day all around, despite the weather.